When will Vietnam lockdown end?

WisePass has to stop the operations complying with the local government since the lockdown and spent time on online activities instead. Many businesses rely on re-opening the business quickly and wonder about when Vietnam will end the lockdown. In this article, we spent some time to gather enough data, articles and insights about what could possibly happen for Vietnam.

Since the end of April 2021, Vietnam has faced the rise of the delta variant and its dire consequences. Hospitals have been overloaded and Vietnam has over 10,000 deaths with a daily ranging from 200 to 400 deaths. The government has quickly taken measures to contain the virus spread and the vaccination campaign picked up significantly in July 2021.

With the strict measures by the government across the country, many people are asking the same question, when will the lockdown end?

In this article we will use some facts and look at some case scenario to see how September 2021 may look like.

Facts and parameters

First of all, it will be necessary to understand why a lockdown has been applied. As the virus is airborne, applying social distancing measures reduces the spread. Hence, the critical cases and deaths are going down. These measures have been taken by many government since last year and they have kept using them like some neighboring countries such as New Zealand or Australia.

Coronavirus cases in Vietnam hasn’t gone down week over week since the end of April 2021

Aside from that, another useful tool has taken place in the war against the coronavirus : the vaccine. Many pharmaceutical companies have come up with their solutions and we’re not going to discuss about the vaccine type or the vaccine efficacy. Bottom line, the vaccination has a positive impact from a public health standpoint as it reduces hospitalizations and deaths.

The last factor is the economy. The Vietnamese government has decided to shut down the economy to prioritize public health. That has been its stance since March 2020, an example of that policy would be the borders being shut down for over 15 months except experts, investors and diplomats. The positive factor of that measure is that it shut down the risks of imported cases until April 2021. That measure was proven to be the right move long until the delta variant came into the picture. Many foreign businesses such as Intel, the chip manufacturer, have gathered to express their concerns on the policy in August 2021 and exchanged with the government on looking at addressing the coronavirus differently, you can read more details on the Nikkei Asia.

Government Policy

In European countries and the USA, the vaccination has broken down the relationship with the surge in new cases. The chart is from the French newspaper Le Monde. On the top, you can look at the new cases. On the bottom, you’re looking at the deaths.

Source : Dans les pays vaccinés, on meurt beaucoup moins du Covid-19, malgré la flambée des cas (lemonde.fr)

When you look at other countries with a lower vaccination rate, you can see they didn’t manage to de-correlate new cases with deaths yet. Source : Dans les pays vaccinés, on meurt beaucoup moins du Covid-19, malgré la flambée des cas (lemonde.fr)

There’s now a difficult equation to solve between the economy, the virus spread, the health system and the vaccination rate. We saw different policies applied around the world. In Australia and New Zealand have adopted the 0 COVID-19 policy. Such policy in using the lockdown to contain the virus spread and drive down cases to 0. Other countries have adopted the living with COVID-19 policy by avoiding a lockdown and relying on the vaccination heavily like Israel the USA or UK.

With the delta variant, it now becomes clear that the focus on vaccinating the population as fast as possible is the key to reduce hospitalizations and deaths. Many European countries have strongly pushed the vaccination with some health pass like in France.

As the Washington Post wrote simply: “what is different about this fourth pandemic wave in the United States is that the growing rates of vaccination and natural immunity have broken the relationship between infections and deaths in many areas”.

Countless reports coming from all over the world show as well that deaths from COVID-19 are now coming mostly from unvaccinated people. Bottom line, it supports the decision-making for a mass vaccination and a strong focus on procurement for the vaccine and a proper implementation to deliver the shots to the citizens.

When will the lockdown end in Vietnam?

The lockdown may end on September 15th 2021, starting with Ho Chi Minh City. Currently, the government is using directive 16, which is the strictest. It may end directive 16 on that day and replace it with directive 15 when the city reaches 100% vaccination rate first dose.

Edit : I’m updating the article as Reuters just reported that Ho Chi Minh City lockdown may be lifted on September 15th 2021.

Ho Chi Minh City is on track to reach a 100% vaccination rate first dose in September 2021

According to VNExpress, Ho Chi Minh City has vaccinated over 80% of the population with 1 dose and will need to vaccinate another 1.2M citizens to achieve 100% vaccination rate 1 dose within the next 10 days. The city has been allocated 9.1 millions vaccines to reach that target. It’s now up to the city to deploy enough sites to reach the remaining citizens to get their first dose.

It’s likely now that the Vietnamese government a new policy based on the vaccination rate with the first dose, second dose and possibly third dose. That should translate into in the end of directive 16, after a city completes 100% vaccination rate first dose and end the directive 15 after a city completes 100% vaccination rate second dose.

The country has currently reached over 15% vaccination rate first dose and 3% second dose

What’s going on with other countries around Vietnam?

Singapore

According to the Strait Times, Singapore adopted that policy based on the vaccination rate and quickly rolled out the campaign to get their citizens vaccinated as fast as possible. With a vaccination rate over 75%, Singapore has already entered its second stage of its plan with economic reopening with increased size limit for events and less strict border controls.

Singapore's four-stage reopening

1. Preparation

 • Starts on Aug 10

 • Travel restrictions to be eased, including resuming entry approvals for fully vaccinated work pass holders and dependants

 • Changes in healthcare protocols, including admitting more infected patients to community care facilities

2. Transition Stage A

 • Expected to start in early September

 • Further economic reopening with increased size limits for events and less strict border controls

 • Wastewater testing to be expanded for early detection of virus clusters

3. Transition Stage B

 • Further economic reopening, although differentiated rules based on vaccination status likely to remain

4. Covid-resilient Nation

 • The end goal and "new normal" for Singapore

Indonesia

Indonesia has recorded more than 4 million coronavirus cases in total and more than 133,000 deaths from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. In Jakarta and some areas on the populous Java island, restaurants inside shopping malls could have a 50% dine-in capacity, and shopping malls could stay open until 9 p.m., while factories are permitted to operate at 100% capacity according to Reuters.

Thailand

Thailand has reported 11,841 deaths and 1.2 million cases. Bangkok and 28 other provinces listed as having the most severe outbreaks can similarly reopen dine-in restaurants at a capacity between 50%-75%, with opening hours capped at 8 p.m., the same as shopping malls.

With its neighbors opening all around, it’s likely that the government may take this into account as well and start at its own pace the end of the lockdown. Since the situation is quite complex and many parameters can change quickly, it’s careful to to update on the situation with new data daily locally and internationally to have a better understanding of the scenario we’re in.