When will Vietnam open borders?

Since March 22nd 2020, Vietnam has closed its borders for tourists. That has affected the whole hospitality industry with millions of tourists unable to come and visit the country. Many businesses have been hit critically and the situation hasn’t changed for the past 18 months.

As Vietnam started its vaccination campaign for the past few months, it is reasonable to think the situation will change soon. We believe Vietnam will likely open its borders for tourists in the coming quarter of 2021. It will be limited geographically, require to be fully vaccinated and at least one negative COVID-19 PCR test.

In this article we will use some recent facts and look at some case scenario to see how the next quarter may look like.

Current Situation

Government Policy

The situation is going to be official and the Vietnamese government has changed its policy from 0 COVID-19 to living with COVID-19. That policy shift is now focused on a fast rollout of the vaccine and the economic re-opening.

Since the vaccination has proven to break the relationship between cases and hospitalizations and deaths, the faster the vaccination, the safer the country. For public health, it’s a clear focus on ensuring the following to implement the new policy :

Procurement of the vaccine - How many vaccines are coming to the country and how many do we need?
Distribution of the vaccine - How vaccines are allocated to each province to prepare the vaccination?
Application of the vaccine - How many doses have been administered once or twice ( and maybe thrice )?

As of September 12th 2021, Vietnam has received 29,6 million vaccines and vaccinated over 22 million people. Source : Vnexpress

When you’re taking a deep dive at a breakdown by city, the focus is mostly on getting the HCMC and Ha Noi quickly to a complete vaccination 1 dose in September. The full vaccination for the city is likely to happen by the end of the year. The region surrounding HCMC is also likely to catch up within the next 3 months and reach 100% for 1 dose.

Source : Vnexpress - Sunday September 12th 2021

Procurement

It’s now to the government to secure the procurement vaccines and allocate to each region and let the local governments to deploy the vaccination. According to the official website from the government, the target is to secure the procurement of the vaccines to cover 70% of the population. That means the government will need to acquire 150 million doses to reach that target.

According to VNexpress, Pfizer announced the delivery of 50 million doses in the coming quarter. Many doses have also been secured through COVAX thanks to European nations in September 2021. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed on September 9th 2021 the arrival of 16 million vaccines in September.

The government already secured the procurement of 20% of the target. With Pfizer delivery next quarter, it’s very likely it will secure over 50% of the target - Source : Vnexpress Sunday September 12th 2021

Distribution

Currently, the government at the moment prioritizes HCMC, Ha Noi and areas where there’s a large amount of factories to support the economic recovery. The current distribution allows each area to complete the 1st dose for adults over 18 within the coming weeks.

It’s likely the main issue is to have each local government coordinate the vaccination and keep testing the population to monitor the new cases and the death count. Even though the death count seems to decrease in HCMC according to VNexpress, it’s safer to wait and see if the trend will be similar like in other countries in the coming weeks.

Application

With the recent rollout, the administration of the vaccine has gone over 500,000 daily on average in the past 7 days. By maintaining such a pace, it will enable many areas to re-open businesses faster and eventually get back to some form of normalcy.

On September 9th 2021, The first flight ferrying 100 passengers from Germany travelling under a quarantine-free scheme has landed at Changi Airport according to the Strait Times.

SQ325, operated by Singapore Airlines (SIA), touched down at 5.36pm on Wednesday (Sept 8). It departed Frankfurt at about 10pm local time on Tuesday, or 4am on Wednesday, Singapore time. With a 70% vaccination rate 2 dose, Singapore will be an interesting case to follow their vaccination travel lane ( a.k.a VTL ).

Vietnam opening Phu Quoc Island to tourists first

Revenue for tourism

In 2020, Vietnam’s total tourism revenue was VND312.2 trillion (US$13.8 billion), down about 58.7%, or US$19 billion less than the previous year. It welcomed 3.7 million international visitors, down 80% compared to 2019 and 56 million domestic tourists, down 34% according to Hanoi Times.

In 2021, Vietnam didn’t welcome any tourists and within the past 3 months, the revenue loss for the hospitality industry can be counted in millions of dollars everyday. Airlines and hotels have taken a major hit but there might some light a the end of the tunnel. With the procurement of the vaccine being secured by the government, it’s likely that Phu Quoc might run a pilot to re-open and revive tourism.

Requirements from tourists

According to a draft pilot scheme, the plan targets foreign tourists who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 or those with certificates of recovery from COVID-19 recognized by an authorized agency in Vietnam.

Eligible tourists should be given their second shots at least 14 days and no more than 12 months before their entry. For those who have recovered from COVID-19, the time from hospital discharge to their entry date must not exceed 12 months. Travelers will be requested for a RT-PCR test within 72 hours prior to their departure, and certified negative for COVID-19 in English by authorities of the country that conduct the test.

The scheme will be applied for visitors who have registered to join package tours of travel agencies.

What’s going to be for sure first is that the authorities are trying the best they can to get the whole island vaccinated as fast as possible so the pilot can start.

Currently, the vaccination rate of Kien Giang is lagging. Hopefully, it’s going to speed up and get the 100% fully vaccinated next quarter to start the pilot for tourists to come over. Source : VNexpress on September 12th 2021

Timeline

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has basically agreed with the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism's proposal on a pilot plan to welcome international tourists with vaccine passports to Phu Quoc resort island in the Mekong Delta province of Kien Giang for six months from October.

As usual, it would be safer to wait for October to happen first to see if it’s going to materialize a couple weeks from now.

When will Vietnam fully open borders?

Based on some cases around the region and the world, the country is taking the safer approach and is more likely to fully vaccinate its entire population first.

The vaccination has rolled out quickly and if it reaches over 70% full vaccination by Q1 2022, that is when we believe the government will make a move on re-opening the borders.

How many tourists came to Phu Quoc and surrounding islands across South East Asia in 2019?

According to CNN, Indonesia's most popular island, Bali, welcomed almost 6.3 million visitors. Phu Quoc in Vietnam, 5.1 million. Malaysia's Langkawi, 3.9 million. The Maldives, 1.67 million. And Boracay, in the Philippines, 1.6 million.

Have countries around Vietnam open their borders yet?

Singapore - YES

As mentioned earlier in the article from the Strait Times, Germany and Brunei has officially made it quarantine free. In other words, fully vaccinated people don’t have to quarantine and can come to Singapore like before COVID.

It’s likely to speed up as more and more countries are done vaccinating their population fully in the coming months.

Thailand - YES

On July 1, at around 11 a.m., 25 passengers arrived at Phuket International Airport on a direct flight from Abu Dhabi. It was the first of four flights due to arrive on Thursday, carrying approximately 400 vaccinated tourists from Doha, Tel Aviv, Singapore and Abu Dhabi as part of the new "Phuket Sandbox" program. With more than 10.5 million visitors in 2019. Over $13 billion in international tourism income. Close to 90% of the local GDP, It would be an understatement to say that tourism fuels Phuket's economy according to CNN.

For those who do wish to fly into Phuket, a list of conditions must be met.

Only travelers coming from pre-approved countries or territories are permitted to enter, and are required to stay in an accredited hotel for 14 days before traveling elsewhere in the country.

Visitors must apply for a Certificate of Entry. They will also need to provide proof of an insurance policy that covers treatment for Covid-19 up to the cost of $100,000, a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours of departure and a certificate of vaccination against Covid-19 with an approved vaccine administered no less than 14 days before their travel date.

Indonesia - PLANNING IN SEPTEMBER 2021

Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s previously announced plans to reopen Bali to tourism have been pushed back to September 2021 according to Travel Media.

Bali, also known as the “Land of the Gods,” is one of the top destinations on any Australian bucket list. It is a short flight from Australia, 4 hours west and 6 hours east, it is exotic, full of culture and nature, and the food for which people travel thousands of kilometers, but it has been closed to most international visitors for quite some time.

As vaccination rates reach critical levels, Indonesia, and its islands, such as Bali and Bintan, plan to reopen. Indeed, Indonesia has recently reaffirmed its intention to open in September, and it may do so.

The encouraging rate of vaccination among locals in many key tourism areas, such as Bali, Batam, and Bintan, and that these idyllic locales would be eager to welcome visitors back.

Malaysia - No

There’s no plan at the moment for Malaysia to open its borders again for tourists according to sources. The government might only consider to open to Singapore only at the moment.

Philippines - No

There’s no plan at the moment for the Philippines to open its borders again for tourists.